Reform could win next Senedd election, party says

Reform could form a new government in Wales after next year's Senedd election, the party's Welsh spokesman has said.

Oliver Lewis told BBC Wales this was "well within the realms of feasibility", with Reform winning "20, 30, or hopefully 40" seats in an enlarged 96-member Welsh Parliament.

The party currently has no Senedd members but hopes to take advantage of a new, more proportional electoral system for Cardiff Bay.

The Welsh government has been Labour-led since the creation of what was then called the assembly in 1999, sometimes in partnership with the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru.

The 2026 vote will see Reform standing for seats in Cardiff Bay for the first time.

They came second in 13 of the 32 Welsh constituencies at last summer's UK general election, securing 16.9% of the vote across Wales, compared to 5.4% in 2019 when it stood as the Brexit Party.

Reform's share of the vote in Wales at the general election was greater than Plaid Cymru, who won four seats, and the Liberal Democrats, who took one.

Last September, Cardiff University polling expert Dr Jac Larner said Reform should be "very confident" ahead of the 2026 Welsh election, and that polling then suggested the party could win "somewhere between 14 and 17" Senedd seats.

Reform leader Nigel Farage has previously said the 2026 Welsh Parliamentary election will be his party's "biggest priority" that year, that Reform would be "a serious contender" at that poll, and it could "win a lot of seats".

But, in an interview to be broadcast on BBC Politics Wales on Sunday, Oliver Lewis goes much further, saying there has been "so much change since our conference on the 8th of November".

"At that point I think Nigel was of the view that we would form the official opposition to Labour," he said.

"Now, given that we had 50,000 people join our movement over the course of December, I think it's well within the realms of feasibility that we could form a government in Wales.

"We've now established branches in each of the Senedd constituencies."

Reform UK says it now has 7,800 members in Wales, considerably more than the 5,000 reported to be members of the Conservative Party in Wales.

The BBC is unable to verify either of the numbers, but the Tories have not disputed the 5,000 figure.

Lewis is Reform UK's spokesperson in Wales.

There are currently no plans to appoint a Welsh leader before the Senedd election, he says.

Instead, the party intends to keep the focus on Farage.

"Nigel is going to play a very big part in the Senedd campaign," said Lewis.

"He's far more popular than the leaders of the other parties in Wales.

"Our present working principle is that once we have a caucus in the Senedd, once we have our 20, 30, or hopefully 40 members in the Welsh Parliament they will then select a leader on day one.

"That may well change.

"It's absolutely right and proper that our candidate for prime minister in 2028 or 2029 has a big presence in the devolved elections in Wales and Scotland."

If Reform does win seats in 2026, it would mark another anti-establishment breakthrough for Farage in Cardiff Bay.

He was the leader of UKIP when that party won seven seats in 2016, before in-fighting saw the group fall apart over the course of the Senedd term.

"UKIP had many difficulties and it cannot be repeated," said Lewis.

"It did a disservice to politics and government in Wales. Absolutely lessons have to be learnt from that."

He added that a problem with UKIP was the fact it was "a single issue party", referring to Brexit.

Immigration is one of the main issues Reform has campaigned on, but Lewis said he wants to focus on other matters in the Senedd election.

"Wales has had really very limited levels of immigration and the immigration that we have had arguably has been very positive for the economy," he said.

"So immigration is much less of a factor for politics in Wales than say England, particularly the south east.

"My primary motivation is reform of the state, to make sure we grapple with our failing institutions and make them deliver better for the people of Wales.

"Immigration of course is a huge issue all over the UK but it is not the only motive for people supporting us.

"This election is not about immigration. Immigration is not devolved, it's reserved competency to Westminster.

"The debate I want to have with our parties is standards in the health service and schools."

Politics Wales is on BBC One Wales at 10:00 GMT on Sunday 12 January and iPlayer