Fewer flu jabs blamed for NHS sickness spike

A spike in flu cases that has added to winter pressures in Welsh hospitals is the result of fewer people getting a flu jab, Public Health Wales (PHW) has said.

Fewer elderly people and healthcare workers have had the vaccine compared with this time last year, according to the PHW director Dr Giri Shankar.

It has led to concerns about a rise in the number of flu cases, which is expected to peak in the next few weeks.

Parents and carers have also been urged to watch out for cases of norovirus - known as the winter vomiting bug - which have been increasing in Wales.

Dr Shankar said: "The current picture suggests that there is an increase in the activity of seasonal respiratory viruses," he said. "That includes, most notably, flu."

He said figures suggested that cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) - a common cause of coughs and colds - have already peaked, while Covid numbers remain "stable", but that flu numbers were expected to rise further and "rates are on the higher side compared to the similar period last year".

"We are obviously concerned about the rising numbers of influenza cases," he said.

"We know that flu can be particularly serious for certain individuals who have underlying medical conditions, particularly, who are vulnerable and either very young or very elderly.

"Therefore we would like to see those individuals protected. Vaccination is the single most important intervention that can protect people, individuals, families, and communities."

Vaccine uptake this year, however, was "sadly not as good as we would have liked it to be," said Dr Shankar.

"Flu vaccination uptake amongst [those] over the age of 65 is between 65 and 70% across various health boards of Wales. At the comparable time last year we were about 73%.

"Similarly, in healthcare workers, at the current time it is 27%. We were about 33% last year," Dr Shankar said.

He added: "Therefore we are reiterating and urging people who are eligible to come forward and take the vaccine. It is never too late to take the vaccine within the season, and vaccine taken now will also offer considerable protection for the remainder of the season."

The lower uptake among healthcare workers in particular could add even more pressure on healthcare services over the winter, said Dr Shankar, if staff are spending more time off with illnesses.

"That further adds and compounds to the pressure that already exists in terms of either waiting times for ambulances, waiting times in primary care, waiting times in hospitals, and consequently, discharge from hospitals," he said.

"So it's quite a tight, vicious circle - that pressure on one part of the system undoubtedly shows in other parts of the system as well."

Dr Shankar also urged people with minor illnesses to use other services "so that people who are absolutely, seriously unwell are prioritised for care within hospitals".

Alongside flu, norovirus cases rose by 26% in the week leading up to 22 December, from 39 to 49.

Parents and carers are urged by PHW to keep their children home from school or nursery if they are experiencing diarrhea or vomiting.

Wendi Shepherd, PHW deputy director in health protection, said: "Wash hands thoroughly with soap and warm water after using the toilet or preparing food, and remember that hand sanitizer is ineffective against norovirus. Avoid sharing towels, and don't prepare food for others if you have norovirus symptoms."

By Steve Duffy, BBC News

There are three measures we can use to see how high the levels of flu are in Wales at this point in the winter.

The first involves Public Health Wales surveillance figures from GPs in the community.

This looks at the numbers of patients they've been seeing - and this shows in the last three weeks of December that flu has reached "medium intensity" levels.

Because surgeries were closed over Christmas, it's not picked up all the cases that are out there but the estimate is that cases are still rising, as expected, particularly the H1N1 type of the virus.

And we're at similar levels that we saw in the winter of two years ago.

The second measure looks at flu in hospital patients.

We can see a spike in the number of in-patients with flu throughout December, with numbers rising 18% in Christmas week.

This time last year, Covid was more of a problem with hospital patients - but at the end of December, far more patients have flu than they did this time last year.

When we take flu, Covid and RSV together - the main acute respiratory infections - than there are more than 900 patients with one of these viruses in hospital beds.

This is 50% more than this time last year.

Scientific modelling carried out in the autumn had suggested a most likely scenario for this point would be around 750 cases.

Figures for the last week of December showed 5% of all hospital patients in Wales had flu - and 9% had one of the ARI viruses.

A third measure, is screening of hundreds of patients attending hospital each week - regardless of any symptoms - for a whole range of respiratory viruses.

This showed in the last week that 30% of patients had flu.

This time last year, the same tests showed only 10% had flu.

Currently at this point, Covid is at quite low levels - with only 3% testing positive, compared with 12% in the same week last year.